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We don’t need a long introduction this week. Those tend to be tedious anyway when you guys just want to get into the starts and sits.
But given that it’s Thanksgiving week, I just wanted to say thank you to all of you reading this. On behalf of my colleagues on all our Fantasy Football Today programming, we appreciate you.
Enjoy Thanksgiving Day with your families. And good luck with your matchups in Week 12.
Now, let’s see who you might be starting and sitting in this important scoring period, with the Fantasy playoffs just around the corner.
Editor’s Note: Projections are provided by SportsLine.com. Projected points are for PPR leagues.
Start of the Week
It took some time, but those of you patient enough with Marlon Mack have been rewarded in a big way. He’s become a standout Fantasy running back since to the middle of October.
Mack started the season dealing with foot and ankle problems, and he appeared in just one game prior to Week 6. But then things started to click for him, and he’s been great for most of the past five games.
Over that span, Mack has three games with at least 13 PPR points. He’s averaging 5.0 yards per game for the season and has five total touchdowns. More importantly, in what was expected to be a crowded backfield with rookies Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins, Mack has at least 17 total touches in three of his past four games.
This week, Mack gets a favorable matchup against the Dolphins at home. Miami has allowed a running back to score in all but one game this season, which was Week 9 against the Jets. And for the year, 11 running backs have either scored or gained at least 100 total yards against this defense.
The latest example was Aaron Jones in Week 10 when he had 15 carries for 145 yards and two touchdowns, along with three catches for 27 yards against Miami, and I’m hopeful Mack has a similar outing this week. I like him as a No. 1 running back in all leagues.
I’m starting Mack over: Joe Mixon (vs. CLE), Mark Ingram (at NO), Phillip Lindsay (vs. PIT), Chris Carson (at CAR) and Adrian Peterson (at DAL)
- Lamar Jackson (vs. OAK): We’re still waiting to find out if Jackson will remain the starter ahead of Joe Flacco (hip), but if that happens as expected, consider Jackson a great streaming option this week. He had 27 carries for 117 yards in Week 11 against Cincinnati and completed 13 of 19 passes for 150 yards with an interception. The Raiders should be an easy matchup for him, especially playing on the East Coast with a 1 p.m. start, and it would not be a surprise to see Jackson have a breakout game.
- Baker Mayfield (at CIN): Mayfield went into the bye in Week 11 on a nice roll as a Fantasy quarterback. He scored at least 21 Fantasy points in three of his past four games, including a season-best 28 points in Week 10 against Atlanta. This week he gets another favorable matchup against Cincinnati, which allows the most Fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks for the season at 27.2. Only two quarterbacks this season have failed to score at least 22 Fantasy points against the Bengals.
- Andy Dalton (vs. CLE): We’re hoping the Bengals get A.J. Green (toe) back for this game, which will obviously help Dalton’s outlook. And he played well in Week 11 at Baltimore with 22 Fantasy points in a tough matchup on the road without Green. In his past five games against the Browns, Dalton has 12 passing touchdowns and no interceptions, and he’s averaging 25.6 Fantasy points against Cleveland over that span. This is a different Browns defense than in previous years, but three quarterbacks in a row have scored at least 20 Fantasy points against them.
I don’t think you have to bench Rodgers in most leagues, but I don’t expect him to have a big game against the Vikings. For starters, Rodgers has been mediocre on the road of late, averaging just 21.3 Fantasy points in three games at the Rams, Patriots and Seahawks. He was sacked nine times in those matchups, and he took four sacks against Minnesota in Week 2, which was his first game playing with his injured knee. He only scored 17 Fantasy points in that outing, but the Vikings have been tough against opposing quarterbacks when defensive end Everson Griffen has been on the field. In five games with Griffen, Minnesota has held Jimmy Garoppolo, Rodgers, Drew Brees, Stafford and Trubisky to an average of just 11.6 Fantasy points per game, with Rodgers scoring the most points. I’m hopeful Rodgers plays well this week, but I’m skeptical given the matchup.
- Jalen Richard (at BAL): Doug Martin (ankle) is expected to play this week, but Richard will still get plenty of playing time. And he’s a great flex option in PPR. He’s scored at least 10 PPR points in all but three games this season. He could also be more involved in the passing game now that Brandon LaFell (Achilles) is out and Jordy Nelson (knee) is banged up. With the Raiders likely chasing points on the road, Richard should be considered the best running back for Oakland.
- Theo Riddick (vs. CHI): Riddick will get additional work this week against the Bears with Kerryon Johnson (knee) out, and he’s a great flex option in PPR. He’s essentially been a receiver for the past three games since Golden Tate was traded to Philadelphia, and he has 18 catches for 126 yards on 22 targets over that span. It’s not an easy matchup against the Bears, but he had six catches for 60 yards on seven targets at Chicago in Week 10. A similar performance could happen on Thanksgiving Day.
- Peyton Barber (vs. SF): Barber took advantage of a great matchup against the Giants last week with 18 carries for 106 yards and a touchdown, as well as two catches for 4 yards, and he’s worth using as a flex option against the 49ers. His three best games this year have come with Jameis Winston on the field (Week 6 against Atlanta, Week 8 against Cincinnati and last week), and hopefully that continues against the 49ers.
- Elijah McGuire (vs. NE): McGuire has taken over for the injured Bilal Powell (neck), and he could play a prominent role in the passing game this week against the Patriots. In two games, McGuire has six catches for 64 yards on 11 targets, and he’s also averaging 4.6 yards per carry. New England has struggled with pass-catching running backs this year, and I like McGuire as a flex option in PPR.
- Duke Johnson (at CIN): In two games since Freddie Kitchens took over as offensive coordinator, Johnson has at least 14 PPR points in each outing. He has four carries for 23 yards, along with 13 catches for 109 yards and three touchdowns over that span. He also has at least four catches in four of his past five games, and he’s worth starting in PPR this week against the Bengals, who allow the most Fantasy points to opposing running backs. Nick Chubb, in case you didn’t know, is a must-start option in all leagues this week.
Peterson scored twice in Week 11 against Houston, which was great, but his rushing stats have been down of late due to the injuries along Washington’s offensive line. In his past three games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay and Houston, Peterson has 44 carries for 136 yards (3.1 yards per carry) and just the two scores against the Texans. He also has only five catches for 17 yards over that span. Dallas is top 10 in fewest Fantasy points allowed to running backs, and only four running backs have scored on the ground against the Cowboys this year, including just one in the past six games. Peterson is still a flex option in most leagues, but I’d use caution if you consider him a must-start running back this week.
- Keke Coutee (vs. TEN): After being out the past two games with a hamstring injury, Coutee returned in Week 11 at Washington and led the team in targets (nine) and receiving yards (77). DeAndre Hopkins is clearly the No. 1 option in this passing game, but Coutee is No. 2 ahead of Demaryius Thomas. And this is a great matchup against the Titans, who have allowed 13 receivers to either score or gain at least 100 yards this year.
- Danny Amendola (at IND): Amendola should stay hot coming off Miami’s bye in Week 11, and he’s a great option in PPR leagues. He’s scored at least 13 PPR points in four of his past five games, and he has at least five catches in every game over that span. DeVante Parker (shoulder) could be out again for the Dolphins, who also lost Jakeem Grant (leg) and Albert Wilson (hip) for the season. With Miami likely chasing points at Indianapolis, look for Amendola to see 10-plus targets, which has happened twice in his past five outings. He’s a great No. 3 receiver in PPR leagues this week.
- Adam Humphries (vs. SF): Humphries has scored at least 14 PPR points in three of his past four games, with three touchdowns over that span. You know the Buccaneers are going to be throwing the ball all game, and Humphries could benefit with some additional targets with O.J. Howard (ankle) out. The 49ers just allowed three touchdowns to the Giants receivers in Week 10.
- Bruce Ellington (vs. CHI): With Golden Tate traded to Philadelphia and Jones (knee) hurt, the Lions need help in the passing game behind Golladay and Theo Riddick. Ellington played well in Week 11 against Carolina with six catches for 52 yards on nine targets, and he could be needed again with Jones still banged up. You’ll only want to use Ellington in deep PPR leagues in Week 12 against Chicago, but he could be needed with Detroit likely chasing points, even at home.
- Marquise Goodwin (at TB): Goodwin has scored at least 10 PPR points in three of his past five games, and hopefully he takes advantage of this matchup with the Buccaneers. Tampa Bay allows the third-most Fantasy points to opposing receivers, and Goodwin can be a low-end No. 3 receiver in most leagues. There have been 17 receivers to either score or gain at least 100 receiving yards against the Buccaneers this year.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Robinson has a big game this week, as well as Anthony Miller and Taylor Gabriel. But I also wouldn’t be shocked if they all struggled since Mitchell Trubisky (shoulder) is out, leaving Chase Daniel as the starter. The last time Chicago played Detroit in Week 10, Robinson (six catches for 133 yards and two touchdowns on eight targets) and Miller (five catches for 122 yards and a touchdown on six targets) went off, bur Lions cornerback Darrius Slay was out for that game. With Slay expected back — he’s still battling a knee injury – and the quarterback change for the Bears, you should dial back your expectations for Robinson on Thanksgiving Day. He’s still worth using as a No. 3 Fantasy receiver, but I’m nervous for his outlook without Trubisky.
- Benjamin Watson (vs. ATL): Watson has had a rough couple of weeks coming into Week 12 with a combined one Fantasy point against Cincinnati and Philadelphia in the past two games, although he missed scoring twice against the Bengals in Week 10. Still, I’m going back to Watson this week, and he had five catches for 71 yards at Atlanta in Week 3. He’s a good streaming option in this matchup at home.
- Chris Herndon (vs. NE): I’m hopeful that Sam Darnold (foot) will return this week for the Jets because that will help Herndon’s Fantasy outlook. In four games prior to Week 10 when Darnold was out against Buffalo, Herndon had at least 10 PPR points in three of those outings. He scored three touchdowns over that span, and Herndon might be the most reliable option in this passing game. New England also is tied for second with Jacksonville with the most touchdowns allowed to tight ends with seven.
- Jeff Heuerman (vs. PIT): Heuerman didn’t have a great game at the Chargers in Week 11 with just four catches for 20 yards on five targets, but I’m not bailing on him yet. He scored in the previous two games, and he should continue to be a top target in this Denver offense. The Steelers have allowed five tight ends this year to either score or gain at least 70 receiving yards, and Heuerman is a good streaming option in Week 12.
Engram has scored eight PPR points in consecutive games against San Francisco and Tampa Bay, but he’s combined for just six catches for 112 yards and no touchdowns over that span on seven targets. He’s scored once in his past four games, and the Eagles have been good against tight ends all season. Only two tight ends have scored against Philadelphia this year, with Howard in Week 2 and Greg Olsen in Week 7, and Engram is just a borderline starter at best in this matchup on the road.
Patriots (at NYJ) – 13.6 projected points
The Patriots come off the bye with a great matchup against the Jets, who have scored 10 points or less in three games in a row. We’ll see if Darnold is able to return to action, but the Patriots DST is in play if Josh McCown starts as well. The Jets have allowed 24 sacks on the season and have six interceptions in their past two games. And in two outings against AFC East foes this season (Miami in Week 4 and Buffalo in Week 8), the Patriots DST scored a combined 33 Fantasy points.
- Cowboys (vs. WAS): Washington has allowed 11 sacks in the past three games, and the offensive line woes and quarterback issues make the Dallas DST a strong sleeper this week. Washington also has scored 21 points or less in five games in a row.
- Bills (vs. JAC): The Jaguars have scored 18 points or less in five of their past six games, and they have allowed at least three sacks in six games this year. The Bills DST also scored 13 Fantasy points in its last game in Week 10 at the Jets, with two interceptions and three sacks in that matchup.
- Colts (vs. MIA): We’ll see how the Dolphins do with Ryan Tannehill (shoulder) back after being out for the past five games, but the Colts DST has scored at least 15 Fantasy points in two of its past three home games. Miami has allowed 10 sacks in the past two games, and the Dolphins have scored a combined 25 points in their past two games against the Jets and Packers.
Panthers (vs. SEA) – 6.8 projected points
I thought the Panthers DST would play well in Week 11 at Detroit, but I was wrong. The Panthers allowed just 20 points but got only one sack and no turnovers. Carolina has now gone without a turnover in two games in a row, has just two sacks over that span and has allowed 72 total points to the Steelers and Lions. Seattle has allowed 11 sacks in the past three games, but Wilson has no interceptions in his past two games, as the team has scored 58 total points against the Rams and Packers.
I was wrong about Fairbairn last week when he had 13 Fantasy points at Washington. He made three field goals and two extra points, including a 54-yard kick. He’s now scored at least 10 Fantasy points in five of his past eight games and only has two outings with fewer than eight points.
- Dan Bailey (vs. GB): The Vikings had Daniel Carlson at kicker in the first game against the Packers, and he was terrible with three missed field goals in an overtime tie. Bailey should do better in the rematch, and Green Bay has allowed six field goals in the past two games against Sebastian Janikowski and Jason Sanders.
- Matt Bryant (at NO): Bryant had a big performance against Dallas in Week 11 in his first game back after being out three games with a hamstring injury. He scored 17 Fantasy points behind four field goals and one extra point, including a 53-yard kick. He only made three extra points against the Saints in Week 3, but he has scored at least 13 Fantasy points in each of his past three home games this year.
- Josh Lambo (at BUF): Lambo has been great in the past three games for the Jaguars, and you should plan to start him in all leagues this week against the Bills. He has nine field goals over that span and has scored at least 10 Fantasy points in each outing against Philadelphia, Indianapolis and Pittsburgh. Buffalo has allowed two of the past three opposing kickers to score at least 11 Fantasy points.
Succop scored just five Fantasy points in Week 11 at Indianapolis, and he’s been held to single digits in points in four of his past five games. He had nine Fantasy points against Houston in Week 2, but it’s hard to trust him this week if Mariota is out. The Texans also have allowed just one kicker to make multiple field goals against them in the past four games.
So who should you sit and start? And what shocking QB could win you Week 12? Visit SportsLine now to get Fantasy football rankings for every single position, and see which shocking QB finishes in the top 10 this week, all from the model that out-performed experts big time last season.